January 31, 2006 IN THIS ALERT: Poll Shows Pessimism on Doha Round Prospects WTO Trade Ministers Meet in Davos European Commission Outlines Trade Objectives for 2006 OECD Invites Public Comment on New Global Initiative to Boost Private Investment for Development    China Economic Census Shows Services Sector's Contribution to GDP Poll Shows Pessimism on Doha Round Prospects In a recent poll of trade negotiators, officials and specialists by the Institute for International Business, Economics & Law (IIBE&L), 63% of all respondents said it is unlikely that the Doha Round will conclude in 2006.  None of the Geneva-based respondents think the round will end this year, although 21% give it a fifty-fifty chance.  Respondents based in capitals are more optimistic, with 29% viewing a 2006 conclusion as likely, and 19% percent giving it a fifty-fifty chance. Asked whether the language on services from the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration is likely to encourage significant liberalization in the Round, 40% of respondents said they thought the text was good, 38% took the opposite view, and 22% were undecided.  Eighty-eight percent of capitals-based respondents and 58% of Geneva participants think it is unlikely that the end-April 2006 targets for the agricultural negotiations will be met.  Overall, just 2% of respondents think those targets are likely to be met. For more information, contact Andrew L. Stoler, Executive Director, IIBE&L, at andrew.stoler@adelaide.edu.au. WTO Trade Ministers Meet in Davos Approximately 25 trade ministers from WTO member countries met in Davos, Switzerland on January 28.  While the meeting did not produce any new breakthroughs in the Doha Round, press reports indicated that the meeting injected a new sense of optimism for the Round, with an "improved tenor" in the talks and a new willingness to resolve disagreements over agriculture and NAMA. The meeting produced an  agreement on a work program for 2006, with accompanying timetables for the agriculture, NAMA, and services negotiations, all of which reflect the deadlines agreed at last  December's Hong Kong Ministerial conference. Click here for a summary of the session.  Click here for a webcast.  Click here for a copy of the timeline. European Commission Outlines Trade Objectives for 2006   The European Commission recently issued a policy document setting out the trade-related objectives of the European Union for 2006.  The document says that the EU will continue to insist that all issues in the Doha Round negotiations be treated "in parallel" and approach a "similar level of detail, specificity, and ambition" as the negotiations proceed. On services, the EU will aim to submit its revised negotiating request on schedule by February 28, and will press other WTO members to improve their offers.  The paper said that the EU will actively participate in plurilateral negotiations of offensive interest to Europe, and will seek to submit a revised services offer by July 31, the deadline specified in the Hong Kong Ministerial declaration. Click here for a copy of the paper.   OECD Invites Public Comment on New Global Initiative to Boost Private Investment for Development            The OECD is inviting public comment on the draft text of a "Policy Framework for Investment," a new initiative to help transition and developing economies attract more investment to boost economic growth and development.  The non-binding Framework draws on good practices from OECD and non-OECD countries and comprises a set of practical policy considerations in 10 key areas that impact investment. These are: investment policy; investment promotion and facilitation; trade policy; competition policy; tax policy; corporate governance; policies for promoting responsible business conduct; human resource development; infrastructure development and financial services; and public governance.   The deadline for comments is Friday, February 10, 2006.  Click here to download the draft.   China Economic Census Shows Services Sector's Contribution to GDP In December, China issued the results of its first economic census, which revealed that China's GDP was 16.8% higher in 2004 than previously reported mainly because the service sector was not fully taken into account. New services data collected accounted for 93 percent of the boost in the total value of the economy. The measured size of China's services sector increased from $531 billion to $785 billion. As a result, China's services sector is now more accurately measured as representing 41 percent of the economy, rather than 32 percent.    According to the Mark Twain Institute, which is dedicated to improving economic statistics, "The revision also demonstrates how important it is for developing countries (and developed ones as well) to strive to improve their services data. An accurate picture of the economy is the only way policy makers can develop appropriate answers to a range of economic questions."  For more information, visit the Institute’s web site.